This coming from DailyKos, which I pretty much read on a constant basis along with FiveThirtyEight.com who have great in-depth analysis as well as polls and statistical predictions:
George W. Bush won North Dakota twice, with 60% of the vote, to 38% for both Al Gore and John Kerry.
Bill Clinton failed to win the state twice, and his closest margin in the state came in 1996 when Bob Dole defeated him by 6.8%. This was as he was delivering a sound electoral-college thrashing to the Kansas senator, 379-159.
No Democrat has won the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. That was the most successful year for Democrats in the television era, as Johnson set a modern record with 61% of the vote, and carried everything but the Deep South and his opponent’s home state of Arizona.
Keep those things in mind as you process this poll from North Dakota: (after the break)
Obama (D) 43
McCain (R) 40Note that while North Dakota consistently votes Republican at the national level, its entire federal delegation – U.S. Senators Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, and U.S. Rep. Earl Pomeroy – is Democratic, speaking to an independent streak among North Dakotans that transcends party lines.
If that streak extends this year to the presidential election as well, John McCain is in serious trouble. North Dakota has just three electoral votes for the taking, but they are three votes that McCain truly cannot afford to lose. If North Dakota is in play, virtually no state is safe.
[Source: Daily Kos – Obama Leading In North Dakota]