DailyKos


Obama Has A Lead In North Dakota?

This coming from DailyKos, which I pretty much read on a constant basis along with FiveThirtyEight.com who have great in-depth analysis as well as polls and statistical predictions:

George W. Bush won North Dakota twice, with 60% of the vote, to 38% for both Al Gore and John Kerry.

Bill Clinton failed to win the state twice, and his closest margin in the state came in 1996 when Bob Dole defeated him by 6.8%. This was as he was delivering a sound electoral-college thrashing to the Kansas senator, 379-159.

No Democrat has won the state since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. That was the most successful year for Democrats in the television era, as Johnson set a modern record with 61% of the vote, and carried everything but the Deep South and his opponent’s home state of Arizona.

Keep those things in mind as you process this poll from North Dakota: (after the break) (more…)


Super Tuesday – Weekend Polling

I apologize for the brevity of my diary; however, I think the results speak for themselves. Zogby has some pretty surprising results in his latest polls, which are to be released tomorrow.

Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November’s presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests — Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada.

In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.

It would be an extraordinary feat to see Obama come within 1 point of Hillary in New Jersey, considering that it’s her backyard. Hillary also had a huge lead in Missouri just over a week ago, but now it seems that it has evaporated into thin air.

Furthermore, Obama appears to be consolidating his lead in Georgia.

Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.

From the polling results, we can ascertain that this race is precipitously shifting in favor of Obama.


Update: Many people are criticizing Zogby and some of their criticisms may be fair. however, the Field Poll will be coming out tomorrow and it will also show that the race in California is a dead heat, thus corroborating the results of Zogby’s poll that shows a dramatic shift towards Obama.

Taken from Daily Kos.