Orioles


MLB League Division Series Predictions

MLB playoffs are a pretty good reason to make some time and finally write something on here again. Let me know your predictions in the comments and I’ll keep a running tally throughout the playoffs.

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Baltimore Orioles (93-69)

This Baltimore Orioles just don’t quit. I was upset back in April when the Jays lost 5 out of 6 to this team thinking how can they lose to a basement dweller but boy was I wrong.

The Orioles lost the first four games against the Yankees this season (all in April) including two games in extra innings… after those two losses, Orioles did not lose an extra inning game THE ENTIRE SEASON. Yankees CC Sabathia went 0-2, 6.38 ERA and .312 avg against in 3 starts vs. Orioles this year.

I will take those two stats compounded with the first two games being in Baltimore helping knock out any nerves they may have and go with Orioles in 4.

 

Oakland Athletics (94-68) vs. Detroit Tigers (88-74)

The Athletics overcame a five game deficit with nine days to go and overtaking the Rangers on the last game of the season. Any team riding a hot streak like that can easily run the table in a short series but when you are going up against Verlander and Fister, you can find yourself one game away from elimination before you even know it. Also, Athletics will probably save themselves a lot of trouble by not pitching to the Triple Crown winner, Miguel Cabrera.

Being a big fan of Moneyball, nothing would make me happier than the Athletics finally getting around to winning the World Series but I just don’t see that happening here. Tigers in 5.

 

Cincinnati Reds (97-65) vs. San Francisco Giants (94-68)

I am still not sure how Cincinnati won 97 games this year but behind Johnny Cueto (19-9, 2.78 ERA, 170 strikeouts), they have a very good chance of beating Matt Cain and the Giants on the road. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce lead a pretty decent offense that could give the Giants some trouble.

The Giants’ will need all the help they can get from their rotation after Cain especially Lincecum who finished the season with only 10 wins and a 5+ ERA but I don’t know if Buster Posey and company can do enough to move on. Reds in 4.

 

Washington Nationals (98-64) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)

Anything short of a World Series win by this Nationals squad which feed fuel to the fire to the decision of shutting down Stephen Strasburg (15-6, 3.16) for the season. That said, the team went 13-11 after shutting him down and still won the division rather comfortably.

The Cardinals, who every one though would struggle to make the post-season after losing Pujols, beat the Braves in controversial fashion but I think that is as far as they will go as the Nationals are still too strong for St. Louis even without a starting pitcher. Nationals in 4.

 

 


Baseball’s Unlikely Regular Season Finish

A great piece by Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight on how unlikely the events of the last day of the Major League Baseball season actually were. Below is just a sample:

The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

  • The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
  • The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
  • The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
  • The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.


Reason Number One.

I will be citing several reasons for why the Phillies will lose this series up until the start of game 1 because no pitch has been thrown. After that, it’ll be up to the players to back up history.

The Phillies have 4 World Series losses on their belt. What teams did they lose to?

1915 – Boston Red Sox (4) – Philadelphia Phillies (1)
1950 – New York Yankees (4) – Philadelphia Phillies (0)
1983 – Baltimore Orioles (4) – Philadelphia Phillies (1)
1993 – Toronto Blue Jays (4) – Philadelphia Phillies (2)
2008 – Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

If you can tell the common theme amongst all four of those teams that Philly lost to is that they are 4 out of the 5 teams that make up the AL East. Sorry Philadelphia but you’re set to lose against the AL East… again.


Derek Jeter: Mr. Overrated? 1

So here is a sneak peek at a chapter that I have written for my book. The title of the book is Diamond Destruction: How Greed, The Media and Steroids Ruined Our Game. Let me know what you guys think.

This specific chapter is called “Derek Jeter: Mr. Overrated?” which I am sure is going to be a big hit amongst my Yankee friends. Maybe this is my own way of removing the closet Yankee fan label or the fact that I never fell for the Jeter hype in the first place. Not really sure what it was but I never thought he is this superstar that everyone makes him out to be. Just think about Jeter who does not put up any big numbers and plays shortstop – if he put up these numbers for a team like Kansas City Royals or another lower tier team by today’s standings, no one would even know who Derek Jeter is. He was quite fortunate to fall into a perfect place with the Yankees who had stars and he was just a very small piece who didn’t even play that big of a role in their ultimate success.

Anyways, enjoy the chapter. I might release more as I go along but feel free to criticize, point out errors or add any other input you may have on this. If you want to read everything I have, feel free to contact me. So far I would say I have about 50 pages worth written and I’m still looking for more people to read it, rip it to shreds so I can improve on it.

I will not waste much time in making my point very clear regarding this chapter. I have long stated and still stand by the statement that Derek Sanderson Jeter, also known as Mr. November to many fans around the country, is one of the most overrated and overhyped baseball players to play the game in my lifetime. Certainly it does not help that he was drafted for the Evil Empire but that doesn’t mean that I don’t like every single player who has put on a pinstripe. There are plenty of Yankees who I have great admiration for and hoped that they had played for my favorite team. (more…)