MLB Playoff Predictions

Author: ABG  //  Category: Sports

After a crazy finish to the regular season, I’m not sure I want to do this but I will. If you want to submit your Playoffs predictions, feel free. Keep in mind that I wrote this before either game started and I did not change it after the Yankee rain postponement tonight.

Rays over Rangers in 4
Tigers over Yankees in 5

I think Rays ride their hot streak to easily take care of the Rangers in 4. The other series should be a lot more interesting.

The Yanks definitely have the better ERA but the Tigers’ staff was better in terms of quality starts – that can certainly go a long way in the playoffs. I give Verlander the edge over CC and if the Yankees bullpen has a hiccup or two, they will be one and done.

Phillies over Cardinals in 4
Diamondbacks over Brewers in 5

At the beginning of the season, I thought 97.5 was a high O/U number forPhiladelphiaand they surpassed it. Although it kills me to root for the Phillies, I can’t go against Roy Halladay and they should have no problem surpassing the Cards who should not have even made the playoffs if it wasn’t for the massive Atlanta collapse.

On paper, the Brewers are a better team than the Diamondbacks by a mile but that is why you play the game. Personally I have an interest in seeingArizonado well with the Jays trading Aaron Hill and Johnny Mac to them this season.

Tigers over Rays in 6
Diamondbacks over Phillies in 7

Tigers over D-backs in 6

But I will revise the later rounds as we move along. What are your picks?

Baseball’s Unlikely Regular Season Finish

Author: ABG  //  Category: Sports

A great piece by Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight on how unlikely the events of the last day of the Major League Baseball season actually were. Below is just a sample:

The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:

  • The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
  • The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
  • The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
  • The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.

Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.

Bucket List: Visiting All Sporting Venues

Author: ABG  //  Category: Sports

I was putting together a bucket list earlier which I will post once it is fully developed later on this summer and someone mentioned to me that going to all the sports arenas and stadiums should be one of the items on that list. That got me into thinking exactly how many of those places I have seen myself.

The list is a little bit longer than I would have originally thought it to be although it includes not only the places I have actually seen a game (indicated in bold) but also the stadiums/arenas that I have seen in person but didn’t necessarily watch a game there. The current list stands at 39 sporting venues, which includes repeats such as Air Canada Centre and Madison Square Garden as they play host to multiple professional teams, or 32 unique ones. Those venues span over 9 states, 1 province and two different countries.

A few rules to counting the sporting venues:

  1. It counts as long as you physically saw it in person whether for a few seconds or were actually inside the stadium.
  2. Repeats count but just have a separate unique list
  3. Old Stadiums still count as long as they were playing host to the professional team at the time of your visit.
  4. Venues of professional teams only, College and Minor League stadiums/arenas do NOT count.
  5. Venues must be located in North America.

I have attended events in 12 of those venues which comprise of 5 baseball stadiums, 3 hockey arenas, 2 basketball stadiums, 1 soccer field and boxing match.

I’m hoping to add a couple when I am in Dallas this summer with the Mavericks, Rangers, Cowboys and Stars but I’m not sure how much time I will actually have but that is definitely on the to-do list.

I’m sure there are plenty of you out there with a longer list than me, let me see them or if you have done more in a single sport, let me know!

Sport (Physically Seen – Attended Game)

Major League Baseball (13 – 5):

-         Rogers Centre (Blue Jays)
-         Yankee Stadium (Yankees)
-         New Yankee Stadium (Yankees)
-         Fenway Park (Red Sox)
-         Camden Yards (Orioles)
-         Wrigley Field (Cubs)
-         Comiskey Park (White Sox)
-         Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies)
-         Nationals Park (Nationals)
-         Citi Field (Mets)
-         Shea Stadium (Mets)
-         Three Rivers Stadium (Pirates)
-         Jacobs Field (Indians)

National Hockey League (9 – 3):

-         Air Canada Centre (Leafs)
-         Maple Leafs Garden (Leafs)
-         Madison Square Garden (Rangers)
-         Prudential Center (Devils)
-         Wells Fargo Center (Flyers)
-         TD Garden (Bruins)
-         Verizon Center (Capitals)
-         United Center (Blackhawks)
-         HSBC Arena (Sabers)

National Football League (7 – 0):

-         Giants Stadium (Jets / Giants)
-         Soldiers Field (Bears)
-         Lincoln Financial Field (Eagles)
-         M&T Bank Stadium (Ravens)
-         EverBank Field (Jaguars)
-         Ralph Wilson Stadium (Bills)
-         Three Rivers Stadium (Steelers)

National Basketball Association (6 – 2):

-         Air Canada Centre (Raptors)
-         Madison Square Garden (Knicks)
-         IZOD Center (Nets)
-         Wells Fargo Center (76ers)
-         TD Garden (Celtics)
-         United Center (Bulls)

Major League Soccer (2 – 1):

-         BMO Field (Toronto FC)
-         Red Bull Arena (Red Bull)

Boxing (1 – 1):

-         Prudential Center (Welterweight)

Horse Racing (1 – 0):

-         Belmont Park (Triple Crown, 3rd Leg)

Is The Baseball System Really Broken?

Author: ABG  //  Category: Sports

I had yet to decide whether I thought the baseball system as it is, was broken or not but after doing just some simple research, I think I am ready to say that it is okay… for now.

There is no denying that there are the lopsided salaries in just a handful of teams but there have also been 9 different World Series champions (Arizona, Anaheim, Florida, Boston, Chicago (AL), St. Louis, Philadelphia, New York (AL), and San Francisco) in the past 10 years as well as 14 different teams (add Colorado, Detroit, Houston, Tampa Bay and Texas) who have played in the World Series in that same stretch of time. That is just about half the league.

After that, make note of the fact that Minnesota, Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, New York (NL), Atlanta, Chicago (NL), Cincinnati, Milwaukee and San Diego have also made the playoffs in the last 10 years and that brings the total up to 25 teams leaving just the Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, and Pittsburgh Pirates to not make it into the postseason.

That is a pretty awesome system where 83% of your league has been in the playoffs in the last decade but baseball has done a really poor job in trying to capitalize off of that. Instead all we hear in the news is of steroids, players not signing extensions and botched efforts to try and keep the all star game relevant.

I would also be interested in seeing similar numbers for other major sports and if I had to guess, I would say NBA is the worst in terms of percentage of teams making the post season in the last decade but I would think NHL and NFL are right up there with the MLB. Maybe if I get time over the weekend, I will pull up those numbers as well.

As for the 5 teams left to make the playoffs since the 2001 season, who do you think will make it there first? I will say either the Washington Nationals or the Toronto Blue Jays but I don’t think either of those two will happen this year, or the next.

MLB Over/Under Results

Author: ABG  //  Category: Sports

As the Major League Baseball regular season wrapped up last night, here’s a quick look of the Over/Under predictions from earlier in the year and the results for them now. I’ll try to find a list of O/U numbers for the entire league and will link it with an update when I do find it.

There were plenty of close calls including the Mets (80.5) finished the year at 79 wins, the Nationals (70.5) finished with 69, Yankees (95.5) fell just short at 95 and the Tigers (80.5) were the only one of these four which was on the over side at 81 wins.

Here is a set of 3 competitive O/U results:

Ayaz Wins Losses 2
Mets O 80.5 79 83 0
San Francisco O 81.5 92 70 1
Angels O 83.5 80 82 0
Philadelphia U 92.5 97 65 0
Washington O 70.5 69 93 0
Yankees U 95.5 95 67 1
Faraz Wins Losses 2
Detroit U 80.5 81 81 0
Minnesota O 83.5 94 68 1
Tampa Bay U 89.5 96 66 0
Cubs O 82.5 75 87 0
Philadelphia O 92.5 97 65 1
Toronto U 70.5 85 77 0
Mike Wins Losses 4
San Francisco O 81.5 92 70 1
Seattle O 83.5 61 101 0
Washington O 70.5 69 93 0
Boston U 94.5 89 73 1
Angels U 83.5 80 82 1
Cleveland U 74.5 69 93 1
Faraz Wins Losses 3
Detroit U 80.5 81 81 0
Minnesota O 83.5 94 68 1
Philadelphia O 92.5 97 65 1
Anaheim O 83.5 80 82 0
Baltimore O 74.5 66 96 0
Pittsburgh U 69.5 57 105 1
Faraz Wins Losses 3
Mets O 80.5 79 83 0
Minnesota O 83.5 94 68 1
San Francisco O 81.5 92 70 1
Angels O 83.5 80 82 0
Cleveland U 74.5 69 93 1
Washington O 70.5 69 93 0
Cindy Wins Losses 4
Boston U 94.5 89 73 1
Baltimore U 74.5 66 96 1
Pittsburgh O 69.5 57 105 0
Philadelphia O 92.5 97 65 1
White Sox U 82.5 88 74 0
Seattle U 83.5 61 101 1

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